Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 17th, 2016 8:16AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeForecast new snow amounts and freezing levels are uncertain, due to weather models variability. If your area gets more snow than I have forecast, these danger ratings may be one level too low.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Flurries or light snow overnight combined with moderate southeast winds and freezing levels dropping down to valley bottoms. On Thursday, expect 5-8 cm of new snow with moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising up to 1400 metres. On Friday there should be another pulse of 5-10 cm of new snow and moderate southwest wind with freezing levels climbing to 1400 metres and then dropping to valley bottoms by Saturday morning. There is a chance of some sunny breaks on Friday and Saturday.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported. Recent wind slabs have been the greatest concern for commercial operators.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate southwest winds and 5-10 cm of new snow added to the wind slabs and settling storm snow from the past few days. About 40-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust. This crust exists in most places except for higher elevation shaded terrain. In many areas there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 180cm below the surface and has become less of a concern. Possible triggers for this deep and destructive layer include a large cornice fall or significant warming.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Forecast new snow and wind are expected to continue to develop storm slabs at all elevations. Storm slabs may be touchy in the alpine and at treeline where they may be sitting on a buried crust.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded terrain.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 18th, 2016 2:00PM