Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Synopsis: A southerly flow will generate widespread precipitation over the southern interior Tuesday and Wednesday before a weak ridge ushers in drier conditions on Thursday.  Temperatures will remain warm through the first part of the forecast period.Tonight and Tuesday: Moderate precipitation - up to 15 cm of snow at upper elevations / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing levels between 2000 and 2200m.Wednesday: Light precipitation  / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing levels falling to between 1500 and 1700mThursday: Sunny with cloudy periods and a chance of flurries /  Light southwesterly winds / Freeing levels around 2000m

Small slabs have been recently triggered naturally and by skiers in areas where the upper snow is moist and sits above a crust.  At lower elevations and on solar aspects small to large loose wet avalanche continue to be triggered on steep slopes. Cornices collapses have been reported during periods of daytime warming. Occasionally these heavy triggers have caused large deep slab avalanches on the slopes below.

Moist snow or a fresh crust may be found on the surface on slopes that have seen recent sun.  Between 10 to 30cm of snow overlies several widespread melt-freeze crusts on all but high elevation North aspects. Wind slabs can be found in lee features on N and E aspects in the Alpine.Several persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack of the region:- The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm and the early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm seem to be inactive.- The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Human triggered avalanches on this layer are unlikely. Larger triggers such as cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming could wake this layer up, resulting in very large and destructive avalanches.