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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 6th, 2019–Feb 7th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Human triggering remains a possibility. Assess the stability before committing to avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace snow, alpine temperature high -15 C, and 10km/hr west ridge winds. Friday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, alpine temperatures Low -31 C and High -16 C, and light East ridge winds. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

50cm from Feb 2nd was followed by strong Northerly winds. This snow overloaded; the Jan 18 persistent weaknesses such as surface hoar 10mm in sheltered areas at lower elevations, crust on steep solar slopes, and facets on Northerly alpine slopes; and the deep persistent basal facet and depth hoar weakness - particularly in shallow snowpack areas.

Avalanche Summary

Feb 4th avalanche control work at the Icefields produced several large size 2-2.5 persistent and deep persistent slab avalanches. A natural cycle of large slab avalanches occurred during this last storm but activity has tapered off.Help forecast - share observations HERE, on the Mountain Information Network!

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Up to 50cm of recent snow followed by strong winds has built thick slabs. 
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Carefully assess open slopes at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

New snow with strong winds recently overloaded the deep persistent weakness in shallow snowpack areas.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5

Loose Dry

Expect sluffing out of steep rocky terrain if the sun is on it.
Be cautious with gully features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5