Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool(ish), at least through Wednesday morning.SUNDAY NIGHT: A gentle breeze, freezing level holding around 1500 m, no significant precipitation expected.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southeast wind, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1000 m Monday night with 6 to 10 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower/mid elevations and should produce 5 to 15 cm of snow at upper elevations. TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, moderate southwest wind, freezing level holding around 1200 m, 3 to 5 cm of snow possible.WEDNESDAY: A few clouds, light southeast wind, freezing level rising to about 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected.

In the far north of the region on Friday and Saturday loose wet avalanche activity to size 2 was reported on solar aspects. Sporadic natural slab avalanches were also reported in the alpine and treeline, but no activity was reported from north aspects. Very little activity was reported from areas closer to Whistler.On Thursday, several loose wet avalanches up to size 1 were reported from steep solar terrain at lower elevations. Explosive control produced a size 2.5 loose wet avalanche on a southwest aspect between 1750-2050 m. It ended up triggering three slabs that failed at the ground. Active cornice control using explosives also produced a size 3 cornice failure which did not pull a slab avalanche from the slope below.

The current snow surface is quite variable. On higher north aspects above 2000 m you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds which may have formed isolated old wind slabs. We're looking at a good overnight refreeze on Sunday night, so most surfaces should have a supportive surface crust Monday morning. There are still a handful of melt/freeze crusts, surface hoar and facets in the upper snowpack, but all of these layers appear to have gone dormant for the time being. The snowpack at mid and upper elevations is expected to continue to gain strength as we enter a period of consecutive nights with below freezing temperatures.