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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 22nd, 2019–Nov 23rd, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Watch locally for wind slabs which can step down to deeper weak layers. Depending on which forecast you look at, 20-25cm is possible by early next week along the divide. 

Weather Forecast

3-5 cm of snow along the divide tomorrow afternoon but likely no snow on the East slopes. The wind will be moderate to strong from the West and temperatures will be -7C in the alpine and close to 0C in the valley bottom. Snow will continue Sunday and Monday with 20-25cm possible along and W of the divide.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of faceted snow overtop of a melt freeze crust from early November (crust only exists below 2300 m). Below this crust unconsolidated facets exist to ground. Treeline snow depths range from 50-80 cm, with up to 110 cm in wind loaded alpine areas. Some areas of wind slab exist at ridgetops and cross loaded features.

Avalanche Summary

Some loose dry avalanches in the range of size 1.5-2 in steep, cross loaded gullies on Observation Peak, and a couple of smaller wind slabs from steep ridgetops in the same area.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds have redistributed much of the loose snow hanging around. With snow in the forecast through the weekend these will grow in size.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The lower snowpack consists of weak facets. There is potential for avalanches to step down to this deeper layer.

  • Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2