Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Avalanche danger will remain elevated as the snowpack adjusts to the weight of the new snow.
Confidence
Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods, 30-50 km/h wind from the northwest, alpine temperatures drop to -12 C.
MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 30-50 km/h wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 30-50 km/h wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 30-50 km/h wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday there were a few small human triggered wind slab avalanches (size 1) and one large explosive triggered avalanche (size 3). The explosive triggered avalanche ran on an early season crust and traveled over 500 m down the slope. While human triggering an avalanche this size remains unlikely in the short term, these results are indicative of persistent weak layers lingering in the snowpack that could become more reactive with additional loading.
Snowpack Summary
20-30 cm of fresh snow is settling into a storm slab at upper elevations and being blown around by wind. Crust layers from November and October can be found deeper in the snowpack (check out this MIN report from Mear Lake). These persistent weak layers could become more reactive when loaded by new snow or wind. Snowpack depths range between 50-100 cm at higher elevations and taper rapidly below treeline.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs remain likely to trigger in steep and wind affected terrain. This is a challenging time for backcountry travel because thin snow cover down low has a tendency to push us into the alpine and treeline where the hazard and likelihood of triggering storm slab avalanches is greatest.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2