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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2022–Mar 16th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Cautious route-finding will be important at upper elevations as fresh storm slabs will be easy to trigger.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of snow in localized areas, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures cool to -6 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies with sunny periods in the afternoon, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures climb to -3 C with freezing level reaching 1700 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures up to -1 C with freezing level climbing to 1800 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries easing off in the morning bringing up to 5 cm of new snow, light to moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

During the peak of the storm on Tuesday there were numerous natural, human, and explosive triggered avalanches. These included small to large storm slab avalanches (size 1 to 2.5) at treeline and above, and wet loose avalanches below treeline. Storm slabs will likely remain reactive to human triggering on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

As flurries ease off overnight there will likely be 20 to 35 cm of storm snow at upper elevations by Wednesday morning. Most below treeline terrain will have moist and crusty surfaces, as freezing levels during the storm were between 1600 and 1800 m. Several crusts can be found in the upper snowpack and recent observations suggest the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With 20 to 35 cm of fresh snow, storm slabs will remain reactive at upper elevations on Wednesday. Human triggered avalanches will be likely on steep and wind-loaded slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5