Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 15th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs.
dboucher,
Avalanche Canada
In your quest for dry snow in the high alpine, watch for pockets of wind slab that are still possible to trigger. At lower elevations a thick surface crust reduces the likelihood of avalanche activity.
Summary
Confidence
High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast
Weather Forecast
Unsettled conditions and shifting freezing levels remain until Monday, when the next front approaches bringing light snow to the Coast.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation, 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds, low alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1300 m.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 30-50 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level around 1300 m in the north and up to 1800 m in the south.
MONDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, 50-60 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -1 C with freezing level around 1300 m in the north and up to 1800 m in the south.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 10-20 km/h northerly winds, high alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
Recent warm temperatures and intense precipitation produced widespread avalanche cycles at all elevations. Natural avalanches to size 3 occurred in the storm snow at higher elevations where snow was less affected by rain. Lower elevations received significant rainfall and produced wet loose and slab avalanches to size 2.5. Following the storm, avalanche activity has tappered off on Friday and Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
Mixed precipitation and warm temperatures over the last week have created a variety of surface snow conditions. Recent snowfalls with strong southwest winds have created pockets of dry snow at alpine elevations. Precipitation fell as wet snow or rain below 2000m, creating saturated upper snowpack that has now formed a melt freeze crust with moist snow below.Â
Two buried weak layers of sugary, faceted grains sit in the middle and lower snowpack, around 50cm deep and 80-200 cm deep. Early Decembers heavy rain and following cold spell formed the deeper layer of facets, that is now most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Avalanches on this layer are large, but sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.
The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Pockets of wind affected snow from the strong south-southwest winds may still be reactive to a human trigger. Take care around wind loaded ridgelines and cross loaded features mid slope. Recent winds have varied - check for wind slab on all aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 16th, 2022 4:00PM
