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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 5th, 2018–Feb 7th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Confidence

Moderate - limited field observations

Travel & Terrain Advice

Following a period of warming and now cooling in the forecast, surface conditions will become hard and conditions for slips and long falls will present. Utilize low angle terrain to manage travel during this period.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural or human trigger avalanches over the last 24 hours

Snowpack Summary

Precipitation in the form of rain has loosened and unconsolidated the upper snow pack. Beginning late Sunday temperatures began to drop and the upper snow pack began to tighten (strengthen) with a melt freeze crust forming. This surface melt freeze crust will be found on all aspects and elevation from the alpine to below treeline. mid and lower snow pack are well settled.

Snowpack Details

Surface:

Moist becoming freeze conditions. Upper: Settled wet grains. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Warm and moist conditions with freezing levels breaching the 2500 meter mark and alpine temperatures rising well above zero. Light to moderate rain fall persisted with leading edge western mountainous zones receiving in excess of 50 mm.

Weather Forecast

A strengthening high pressure to the south west of the region will still allow a few weak pacific bands to slip by bringing to the region some alpine showers, cooling conditions and light to moderate South westerly wind conditions.Monday: 5 mm of precipitation, temps 0 rising to +2, winds light to moderate Sw becoming Light Nw late in the afternoon, freezing level to 500-1200 m.Tuesday: 5 mm of precipitation, temps -3 rising to +2, winds moderate Sw, freezing level 500-1200 m.Wednesday: 5-10 mm of rain, temps +3 rising to +5, winds moderate Sw, freezing level 1800 m rising to 2500 m mid day.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Cornices have had the chance to form and grow over the preceding weeks and can be found on predominately north aspects at treeline and in the alpine. Expect cornice noses to be frail and are likely to become stubborn to triggering by human traffic. When triggered these large chunks of heavy snow have the potential to become a terrain hazard for travelers below.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5