Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Occasional flurries with minor accumulations through the forecast period.SATURDAY: 2-5cm Friday overnight into Saturday, with another 2-5cm possible throughout the day / Strong to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 900mSUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries / Moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -4 MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 3-10cm possible / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3

Continued avalanche activity was observed in steep low elevation terrain (road cut banks) in the Elk Valley on Wednesday to size 1.5. These were triggering very easily. See here for details in the MIN. On Monday, a machine triggered Size 1.5 persistent slab avalanche was reported running on the mid December surface hoar layer, down 35 cm at that location (1700m). See the details here in a Mountain Information Network (MIN) post. Expect to see persistent avalanche activity continue as temperatures revert to a normal regime (warmer in the valleys and colder with elevation) and snow sitting above persistent weak layers settles more rapidly.

Up to 45 cm of snow fell to end 2017. Since then, temperatures have warmed up from the deep freeze and moderate to strong winds (primarily from the south west) have redistributed that snow into wind slabs at tree line and above. Some windward slopes have been scoured to ground. The main concern in the snowpack is a weak layer buried mid-December, which consists of a crust on solar aspects and feathery surface hoar in sheltered terrain at and below tree line. This layer has consistently shown to be reactive to human triggers. The lower snowpack is composed of mostly soft sugary faceted snow and early season crusts. Avalanche hazard for tree line elevations and below may be one step lower in areas east of the divide.See here for a recent forecaster blog for a summary of the tricky conditions in the snowpack and strategies on how to work around a persistent slab problem.