Fingers crossed for new snow on Wednesday night!
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
On Wednesday expect mainly overcast skies. On Wednesday night and Thursday the region may see 10-15cm of moist snow with similar amounts accumulating again on Friday. On Wednesday the freezing level should drop from about 2800m to 2000m, and should remain at that elevation for the rest of the forecast period. Ridgetop winds should remain mainly moderate from the southwest.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, warming and solar radiation triggered widespread loose wet avalanche activity in steeper, sun-exposed terrain. Large cornice collapses were also observed. Of note, warming also triggered a size 3.5 slab avalanche on the south face of Mt Currie. Similar action likely occurred on Tuesday. The gradual cooling trend will strengthen the upper snowpack making avalanches triggered by warming less likely.
Snowpack Summary
Extremely high freezing levels and solar radiation have left most surfaces moist or wet. This warming has also had a significant destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Cornices are also reported to be huge and collapse has become more likely with daytime warming. About 50-90cm below the surface, you'll likely find a rain crust which formed on January 28th. This crust is widespread and exists up to about 2050m. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer may be found between 130 and 200 cm below the surface. The combination warm temperatures and subsequent gradual cooling is making avalanches failing on these deeper layers unlikely.
Problems
Loose Wet
Freezing levels will remain high on Wednesday and loose wet avalanches may still be triggered in steep terrain. Use extra caution if the sun makes an appearance.
Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices are huge and have become weakened by recent warming and solar radiation. They can be destructive by themselves, and may also become the trigger for a large slab avalanche on the slope below. Use extra caution around ridge crests.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 10th, 2016 2:00PM
