Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Monday: Clear skies in the morning with increased cloud and light precipitation possible late in the day / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at about 2200mTuesday: Light to locally moderate snowfall / Moderate southwest winds becoming light and northerly / Freezing level at 1500mWednesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northerly winds / Freezing level at 1700m
Avalanche Summary
Over the weekend several cornice collapses were reported including a size 3 release on Forger Peak in Garibaldi Park. In the Rutherford area a few size 2.5 cornice releases triggered slab avalanches in steep terrain to size 2. I expect continued loose wet activity and cornice fall with continued daytime warming.
Snowpack Summary
A melt-freeze crust exists on all aspects up to 2200 m, and dryer snow can be found on high northerly aspects. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settle the upper snowpack. Isolated wind slabs exist, although they are likely settling and gaining strength. Large sagging cornices are looming over slopes and pose a threat, especially when the sun comes out.The early February facet/crust layer is now down close to 200 cm. This layer is largely dormant at this time; however, it should remain on your radar as we transition into a warm-up with minimal overnight refreeze and intense solar output.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 5
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 3 - 6