Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Wednesday night: 10-15cm. Moderate to strong west to south-west winds. Freezing level lowering to 1300m.Thursday: Light snowfall. Light-moderate north-westerlies. Freezing level around 900m.Friday: Moderate to heavy snow. Strong south-west winds. Freezing level around 1000m. Saturday: Light flurries. Cooling temperatures. Light north-westerly winds.

We are now in an avalanche cycle with numerous natural and human-triggered avalanches occurring, reported as up to size 2.5. Many of these are failing on the mid-December surface hoar, mostly on north through east aspects from 1500m to the peaks. A skier remotely triggered an avalanche from 50m away and in many places shooting cracks and whumphing are further indicators of a very touchy, unstable snowpack.

The snowpack is in a very touchy state. 30-50cm of storm snow has built up over a weak old snow surface. The storm snow has turned into a soft slab due to warming. South-west winds have led to the development of wind slabs on lee slopes. The surface hoar layer buried in mid-December is now under 45-70cm of snow and is highly reactive. It is well-preserved with 10-15mm crystals and exists into alpine start zones (although it's probably best preserved in sheltered areas near treeline). The mid-pack is generally well settled. Facets exist at the base of the snowpack.