Avalanche Forecast

High

A well-embedded ridge of high pressure will keep the region warm and sunny for the forecast period. Ridgetop winds will be generally light, while freezing levels will sit at about 2200m on Wednesday and then climb to about 2700m for Thursday and Friday.

On Monday, storm slabs (mostly in the size 1.5 range) were reported in high elevation, wind exposed terrain. The sun will become the main driver for avalanche activity throughout the forecast period. Although warming will promote settlement and strengthening within the recent storm snow, loose wet avalanches and cornice falls will become the most common avalanche type. My main concern, however, remains isolated yet destructive releases on deeper weak layers which formed earlier in the season. Avalanches on these layers could run surprisingly long distances, and may be triggered by a cornice fall, a surface avalanche in motion or extended periods of warming.

13-25cm of new snow from Sunday night overlies small surface hoar on shaded slopes at treeline and in the alpine. Snow surfaces are now well into a daily melt-freeze cycle on all aspects below treeline and sun-exposed slopes at higher elevations. Cornices are large and looming and will become increasingly weak with forecast warming and solar radiation. About 25-50cm below the surface, you'll likely find another hard crust which exists everywhere except high, north-facing terrain. The late February persistent weak layer down 70 to 120 cm remains a low probability / high consequence concern. Test results are variable, with occasional sudden planar (pop) results. While generally becoming unlikely to trigger, this layer could produce surprisingly large and destructive avalanches with a cornice fall or warm temperatures.