Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 21st, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

stephen holeczi, Parks Canada

Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Expect an increase in human and natural avalanche activity as new snow and wind increases the load over very prominent facets below. SH

Summary

Weather Forecast

10cm of snow can be expected between now & the end of Friday on top of the 25cm we have so far. The winds will continue to be strong from the West, and temperatures will also rise with freezing levels around1800 m.

Snowpack Summary

Strong westerly winds have been rapidly building slabs at treeline and above out of the 15-25cm of recent snow. The overall snowpack has become weaker from the facetting process but is still supportive where over 1 meter, otherwise below the new snow, its facets to the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week, several skier triggered and natural loose snow avalanches to size 2 have been reported in steep terrain gaining mass as they travel and running far. Avalanche control on Mt. Bourgeau showed a similar trend Thursday, with one size 2 starting as a small wind slab which scrubbed all of the facets in the track and hit the road.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Problems

Loose Dry

Expect increased natural activity with forecast of wind, warming temperatures, and light snow. New snow and surface facets will sluff easily in steep terrain (40+ degrees) and run far. Avoid exposure to steep overhead or gullied terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Forecasted strong Westerly winds and new snow will continue to form touchy wind slabs over the previous facetted surfaces. Once initiated, these can gouge down to the facets and run further than expected, especially in thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 22nd, 2016 4:00PM