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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2015–Dec 7th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Recent snowfall appears to be bonding well to Dec3 layer, however with additional heavy snowfall over the next 48 hours, new storm slabs are expected and may be easy to trigger.

Weather Forecast

Continued snow as a series of storms roll over the area. Expecting up to 40 cm accumulated by Wednesday night. Moderate to strong SW winds with mild temps. Freezing levels remaining consistent at around 1500m throughout the storm.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of new snow in past 72 hours appears to be bonding well to a breakable sun crust on steep solar aspects. On shady aspects the crust did not form, and the Dec3 surface hoar can be found in isolated sheltered locations at treeline. The snowpack is shallow and faceted below treeline, more supportive above 1900m. Extensive scouring in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new activity observed in the Maligne Valley area on Sunday or the Columbia Icefield area on Saturday.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Weather models indicating 40mm over the next 48 hours. This significant load will be accompanied by SW winds, leading to new slab formation on lee aspects. The Dec3 layer will be down 60cm if this snow arrives, and will warrant careful investigation.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3