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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2015–Dec 19th, 2015
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Take a progressively incremental  approach to committing terrain features in this time of  low avalanche danger and be prepared to scale back if signs indicating more dangerous conditions.

Weather Forecast

The winds are forecast to increase to strong from the SW. The overnight temps at alpine elevations will be around -10 with daytime highs of -5. Up to 10cm of new snow may fall over the weekend at higher elevations but no significant storms are forecast. Increased winds will build soft slabs in the alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow in past 12 hr . Above 2000m the meter deep snowpack  is very supportive .  A weak surface hoar layer, buried on Dec 3rd, lurks below 45-60cm of snow. This layer is of concern at and below treeline on northerly facing slopes. In the Alpine thin wind slabs can be found above 2,800m. Below 1,700m the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed and reported

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New (and previously) building windslab will be found in lee areas at treeline and into the alpine.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Dec3 layer down 60cm has not been associated with any observed natural activity nor has it proven to be reactive to skier traffic. Further cooling temperatures and the consistently supportive mid-pack helping increase confidence in this layer.
Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Be cautious of buried obstacles in shallow snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 2