Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 12th, 2014 5:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

The snowpack has doubled in a short period of time. This has overloaded a variety of weaknesses and created very dangerous avalanche conditions. The Icefields Parkway has reopened for the time being, check road report before making any travel plans.

Summary

Weather Forecast

More snow, up to 10-15cm and extremely high winds are expected in the forecast area over night in through tomorrow.

Snowpack Summary

35 to 50cm of storm snow has been redistributed by moderate SW winds creating wind slab over a strong mid-pack in lee features on top of a weak basal facets layer at the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Control work in the Icefields area produced significant results up to size 2.5. Most slides running in the storm snow but many results continue to scour the ground running on basal facets and burying the road. Of note, in one case, multiple slides were recorded from one shot remotely triggering up to 100m away and over running the road.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

55cm of storm snow has fallen in the past 48hrs and is being redistributed by moderate to strong SW winds significantly overloading the snowpack. Lee features will be creating dangerous conditions overhead and underfoot.

Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Storm Slabs

Forecasted new snow will continue to overload an already stressed snowpack.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Triggering any of the above problems have potential to initiate this layer and create large full path avalanches.

Avoid steep, open slopes.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 13th, 2014 4:00PM