Monday night's forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Pay close attention to how much snow falls (and how hard the wind blows) as wind slabs are the primary concern.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
On Tuesday, expect light snowfall, moderate westerly ridgetop winds and freezing levels at valley bottom. On Wednesday and Thursday, the region will be under the influence of a dry ridge where we can expect a mix of sun and cloud, generally light northwest winds, and temperature inversions. With the temperature inversions, alpine temperatures may reach 5 degrees celcius, while valley temperatures should remain below freezing.
Avalanche Summary
Some surface sluffing was reported to have occurred in sheltered treeline areas on Monday. At higher elevations generally small wind slabs were also reported. With light snow and wind in the forecast, I would expect similar avalanche activity on Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15cm of recent snowfall has been shifted into wind slabs in upper elevation terrain by moderate to strong westerly winds. These new accumulations overlie hard wind slabs in exposed terrain, and low density faceted snow in sheltered areas. Up to 70 cm below the surface you will likely find a hard, thick crust which formed mid-December. This crust has overlying facets and surface hoar (up to 10 mm in sheltered locations at treeline and below). This layer seems variably reactive throughout the region. In areas where the overlying slab is thick and cohesive, large avalanches are possible at this interface. A crust/facet combo which formed in November seems to have gone dormant for the time being.
jlammers,
Avalanche Canada
