Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers will form at all elevations Monday night. These slabs will be most reactive on lee features at treeline and above.
Expect the danger to be HIGH in localized areas that receive more than 25 cm of new snow Monday night.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Monday night: Snow; 15-30 cm / Moderate southwest wind / Low of -7 / Freezing level 900 m.
Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest wind / High of 0 / Freezing level 1200 m.
Wednesday: Sunny, with increasing cloudiness in afternoon. / Moderate southeast wind / High of 3 / Freezing level 1700 m.
Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 3-10 cm / Light southwest wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
Human triggered avalanche activity is expected to increase on Tuesday with the 15-30 cm of new snow and moderate southwest winds forecast for Monday night.
Snowpack Summary
Forecast 15-30 cm of new snow Monday night could bring storm totals to 30-50 cm by Tuesday morning. The new snow and strong southwest winds are expected to form large storm slabs that will be reactive to human triggers at all elevations. Expect the storm slabs to be most reactive on lee features at treeline and above.
The recent snow is sitting on a variety of hard snow surfaces, including crusts and wind scoured snow. Below this, there are several crusts in the upper snowpack, but they are unlikely to be a concern in most areas until the next significant warming event.
Terrain and Travel
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers will form at all elevations Monday night. These slabs will be most reactive on lee features at treeline and above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Loose Wet
Expect a wet loose natural avalanche cycle to occur when the sun comes out.
Stay well away from any large slopes that are in the sunshine.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices may be weak and reactive to human triggers. They create a significant falling hazard, and may produce large slab avalanches as they fall onto the slope below.
Cornice failures are more likely during hot and sunny weather.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3