Avalanche Forecast

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Tuesday night: Clearing skies, isolated flurries, light west winds, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries, moderate southwest winds with strong gusts, alpine high temperature -4 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Friday: Partly cloudy, isolated flurries, moderate southwest wind with strong gusts, alpine high temperature 2 C, freezing level rising to above 2000 m overnight.

Several recent natural, small to large (size 1-2.5) wind slab avalanches were reported on northwest through northeast aspects at upper elevations.

On January 16th, a natural, size 2 wind slab stepped down to the deep persistent basal facets below a rock band, details here.

Continuing west and southwest winds have formed stiff wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. 

A crust can be found up to treeline and on solar aspects in the alpine due to previous warming and sun exposure. 

A well consolidated mid-pack overlies a generally weak basal snowpack. The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of facets and deteriorating crusts. Although inherently weak, the benign weather pattern this week will likely promote a decreasing trend in reactivity for this avalanche problem. Areas that are most likely to harbor this problem are shallow, rocky start zones. 

• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.