Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 4th, 2021 4:33PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Barb Sharp,

Jasper.

The warm temperatures and strong solar effect will continue to weaken the snowpack.

A Special Avalanche Warning is in effect immediately, through Saturday.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries (4cm); alpine: High -2 °C; ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h; freezing level: 2000m.

Saturday: Flurries (9cm); alpine: Low -9 °C, High -4 °C; light ridge wind; freezing level: 1500m.

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods; alpine: Low -13 °C, High -8 °C; ridge wind southwest: 10-30 km/h; freezing level: valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperature have resulted in warm moist conditions at TL and BTL. The snowpack is highly variable throughout the forecast region. A moist upper snowpack overlies a supportive mid-pack in the Icefields area. Shallow snowpack areas are week and failing in test results.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet and slab avalanches on solar aspects up to size 2, mostly at TL and BTL throughout the forecast region.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Afternoon sun is packing a punch on lower elevation, SW through W slopes. Ice climbers: be extremely cautious. Overhead hazards can catch sun early.

Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.
If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: South, South West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs in the alpine and exposed treeline features have the potential for wide propagations across connected features.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Mar 5th, 2021 4:00PM