Avalanche Forecast

This is a tricky one.... The two widespread facet weak crystal layers at all elevations and the buried surface hoar weak layer found specifically below treeline, all still linger in our snowpack, just below a crust that has been rotting away (due to the cold temps). Evidence of this has been noted by wide spread reports of settlements (whoomphs) island wide. The capping crust that was once supportive and bridged these lower weak layers is eroding at varying rates based on ones location, aspect and elevation. Ie the crust is almost non existent on higher cold north zones but still intact on low souths. So the big question is will one be able to trigger these weak layers, how much weight will it take and will the new snow load (and especially the new snow load plus the addition of wind blown snow) tip the scales and make human triggering even more likely? The only way to tell for sure is to take extra time to study the snowpack in the avalanche terrain you plan to venture into. Make a plan that allows for time to dig pits and do tests. Don't know how to dig and correctly interpret pit results... then the best option might be to avoid avalanche terrain and give this snow time to settle out. Don't worry its the island it wont take too long and there is some very nice snow still preserved on low angle terrain out of the wind. Location: Widespread on all aspects and at all elevations. Triggering maybe more likely on colder aspects where the crust above has eroded at a faster rate. Likelihood of triggering: While triggering these unreactive layers is unlikely with human activity at this time (Tuesday Wednesday), this problem has the potential to possibly trigger/fail with the added weight of us and the new snow forecast for Thursday into Friday and will certainly be more of a concern as we move forward. Size: If we can trigger these layers we can expect the size of avalanche to range from size 1 to size 2.5

The moderate to strong winds from both the SE and NW over the past few days will continue to flow during this forecast period. These variable direction winds have and will continue to create a wind slab avalanche problem. Low density snow from the cold storms last weekend combined with more new snow falling Thursday and Friday will increase the depth and size of these slabs. Location: These slabs will be specifically distributed in both the alpine and treeline elevation bands, and will sit just below the ridgelines and on the edges of cross loaded terrain features. Expect to find wind slabs in lee bowls and gullies especially where the direct windward side of the ridge has large open collection zones (know as a large fetch). Note these slabs will be on both south east and north west aspects. Likelihood of triggering: Expect these slabs to be reactive to human activity in the likely to very likely range, while naturally occurring slab activity may be limited to likely to possible. Size: these slabs may be in the size one to size two range which means the bigger collection zones have the potential to injure bury or kill a person.