Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Nov 17th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.
Ian Jackson,
Avalanche control will be conducted in the Simpson Avalanche Paths on Wednesday Nov. 18th. No access to this area on that day.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Tuesday was warm and windy, but temperatures will cool and winds will decrease Wednesday - Friday. Forecasts are calling for 5-20 cm overnight Tuesday with higher amounts to the north. Winds will decrease but remain in the moderate to strong range at 3000m from the SW. Another pulse of precip is forecast for Wednesday evening.
Snowpack Summary
20-40 cm of settled snow overlies the Nov 5th crust with the higher amounts around Sunshine. Windslabs exist in alpine and at treeline. The crust is 1-10 cm thick and generally thickest around Sunshine. It extends up to 2400m on polar aspects and slightly higher around Sunshine and on solar aspects. Total snow depths at treeline are 50-100 cm
Avalanche Summary
A size 2 natural out of the "Goat's Eye" feature near Sunshine ran ~ 300m on a NW aspect. Otherwise, local ski hills generally triggering small soft windslabs within the overnight storm snow. Small sluffs were noted out of steep rocky terrain on a field trip in "Guiness Gully" as temperatures warmed on Tuesday.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs exist in the alpine and at treeline and more forecasted wind and snow will create new ones. So far, we haven't seen too many stepping down to the Nov. 5th crust, but the potential is there.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
With up to 20 cm forecasted overnight, watch for sluffing in steep terrain. This will be less of a problem in areas that don't receive as much snow.
- Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Nov 18th, 2020 4:00PM
