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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2024–Mar 17th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.

Sun and high temperatures are making large natural avalanches likely.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, widespread natural avalanches were reported up to size 2.5, loose wet and wet slabs possibly failing on the persistent weak layer formed in early February.

As freezing levels remain elevated, we expect natural avalanche activity to continue.

Snowpack Summary

As sunny days and high freezing levels continue, more of the upper snowpack will get moist or wet. This will make the snowpack more unstable, including any persistent weak layers under the most recent snow, including a layer of large feathery surface hoar observed in the Mt. Cain area.

80 to 120 cm below the snow surface, a layer of softer, faceted snow overlies a crust on all but high north aspects.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Clear. Moderate to strong south ridgetop wind. Treeline low around 8°C.

Sunday

Sunny. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, easing to light in the afternoon. Treeline temperature around 7 °C.

Monday

Sunny. Light south ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 10 °C.

Tuesday

Sunny. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

80-150 cm of settling snow sits over a weak layer of faceted snow and spotty surface hoar on a firm crust. Rising freezing levels and solar input will increase the likelihood of triggering this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

Warming and periods of sun will produce widespread wet loose avalanches, especially on steep sun-exposed slopes. These may step-down and trigger deeper slab avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5