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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2018–Dec 15th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Human triggered avalanches will continue to be a concern, particularly at higher elevations.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: 20-25 cm new snow, falling as rain below 1500 m. Strong southerly winds.SATURDAY: Mostly dry. Freezing level around 800 m. Moderate southwesterly winds. SUNDAY: Around 25 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1600 m. Strong southerly winds.MONDAY: Around 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1500 m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle was reported on Wednesday and Thursday and continued into Friday. Human-triggered avalanches will remain a concern over the weekend, particularly at elevations above 1800 m.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 2 m of new snow has fallen in the series of storms that started last Sunday. Extreme southerly winds (up to 180 km/h!) have accompanied the new snow and the weather forecast is calling for additional snowfall amounts to accumulate. A crust likely exists on or near the surface at elevations below approximately 1700 m.A weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below the recent storm snow. Initially, avalanches were reported to be running on this layer. However, it appears as though recent avalanche activity is running in the storm snow above this layer. The presence of this layer shouldn't be completely discarded, since it could potentially increase the expected size. This would be of particular concern with large loads, such as a cornice fall.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Lots of new snow with extreme winds will maintain storm slabs and wind slabs, particularly in alpine and treeline areas. Upper parts of below treeline could also experience storm slab issues.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3