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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 2nd, 2018–Dec 3rd, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of the buried surface hoar layer down 40-80 cm. Human triggered avalanches are more likely at treeline and sheltered locations in the alpine where this weak layer may exist. New Forecaster blog HERE.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy / Alpine Low -14 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -10 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -12 / Moderate, northwest wind / Freezing valley bottom.WEDNESDAY: Sunny / Alpine high -12 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in this region on Saturday. However, we currently have very few observations from within this region. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

There may be some lingering wind slaps in exposed, alpine terrain, but the primary concern in the snowpack is a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and/or sun crust depending on the aspect of the terrain. This layer is down 30-70 cm and has been described as 'spotty' with regards to its distribution. It is most pronounced at treeline, but may be found in sheltered, north facing alpine areas.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. There have been no reports of reactivity on this layer; however, this layer may be reactive to human triggers in isolated locations such as steep, rocky terrain, with a shallow snowpack. Small avalanches may step-down to this crust resulting in large, destructive avalanchesSnowpack depths decrease dramatically with elevation where rocks, stumps, and open creeks remain significant hazards.We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region, so it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.Check out our latest FORECASTER BLOG for more insight into the uncertainty we have with the surface hoar layer in the southern Cariboos.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Be especially cautious with this buried weak layer in the Treeline elevation band, on large open slopes that have a deep enough snowpack to bury all the bushes and make the slope smooth. It may also be present in sheltered, N. facing alpine slopes.
Use small slopes with no consequence to test for the presence of the buried weak layer.Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking, and evidence of recent avalanches.Start in conservative terrain while you gather additional information about the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2