Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong west winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1500 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing level 1000 m.

A naturally-triggered large (size 3) avalanche was observed on Wednesday near Elkford, which likely released on Tuesday. It ran full-path to valley bottom. New snow on Thursday will increase the likelihood of observing such avalanches.

Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from practically no snow to almost 200 cm. Variable snowfall amounts are forecasted for Thursday, ranging from 5 to 20 cm. New snow will form fresh slabs across the mountains. Expect the deepest snow accumulation in lee terrain features, as the snow will fall with strong southwest winds. This snow will sit on previous hard wind slabs, a scoured and shallow snowpack on exposed southerly ridges, and generally soft snow in sheltered areasAround 60 to 90 cm of snowfall in December has formed a slab that sits on a persistent weak layer of weak and sugary faceted snow that formed during dry and cold weather in early December. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep features where snowpack depths are variable.The lower snowpack has a weak structure composed primarily of sugary faceted snow around a crust near the ground. Should a shallower avalanche be triggered, it is likely that it would step down and scour to the ground.