Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow to eastern parts of the region, wind increasing to 50 km/h from the northeast, alpine temperatures dropping to -12 C.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow to eastern parts of the region, 50-70 km/h wind from the northeast, alpine temperatures dropping to -17 C.

Thursday: Sky clearing through the day, wind easing to 20-30 km/h from the northeast, alpine temperatures around -15 C.

Friday: Clear skies, light wind from the northeast, alpine temperatures rising to -10 C.

The most likely place for avalanches to be triggered right now is on slopes where the wind has blown surface snow into wind slabs. A MIN report from the weekend shows the type of terrain where triggering thin wind slabs is a concern. This group of skiers reported a 20 cm thick slab that was triggered on north-facing slope at 2100 m. Observations are limited this time of year, so there is a fair bit of uncertainty about the extent of current avalanche activity.

A recent change in wind direction from southwest to northeast is expected redistribute surface snow, resulting in wind slabs on all aspects. Beneath this, the snow pack consists of various crusts and a potential feathery, weak surface hoar layer 50 cm below the surface (see video here). With few field observations, uncertainty remains on the distribution and reactivity of these layers. It's still early season and the snow pack remains fairly thin. At the deepest, up to 100 cm can be found on north aspects in the alpine.