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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 26th, 2013–Dec 27th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

A shallow snowpack, deep persistent slab and basal weakness have created a tricky start to the season - conservative route selection and avoidance of big terrain in the alpine is advised. Have a safe and happy holiday season!

Weather Forecast

Mild temperatures through to Friday evening, at which point they are expected to drop back to more seasonal norms (-10C at 2100m).  Southwest flow will continue to dominate with generally light to moderate values, gusting to high in the alpine.  Minimal precipitation is expected - models predict 0-5cm over the next 24 hours.  Freezing level 1400m. 

Snowpack Summary

No significant precipitation over the last week (1mm in past 72 hours / 5mm past 7 days). Snowpack is generally shallow, weak, with a variably distributed deep persistent slab overlying weak basal layers of depth hoar, crusts, and/or facets. A steady southwest flow has created pockets of windslab in exposed areas at treeline and above.

Avalanche Summary

1 new natural slab avalanche observed today in the alpine on a Southwest aspect - size 2. Likely ran on basal weakness. Numerous natural slab avalanches to size 2.5 observed in the past week, primarily on cross loaded gully features in the alpine.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Currently there is a variably distributed persistent slab in a generally shallow snowpack. Although stubborn, if this slab is triggered it will result in a full depth avalanche running on weak layers at or near the bottom of the snowpack.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Steady Southwest winds have created pockets of windslab on lee features above treeline. Recent natural activity has been observed in crossloaded gully features in the alpine.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depthCaution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2