Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 29th, 2015–Mar 30th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Warmth is the main driver of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Monday: Freezing level starting near 2400m, rising to 2800m in the afternoon. Moderate SW winds at treeline. Strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Mostly clear skies. No significant precipitation expected.Tuesday: Freezing level starting around 2200m, lowering to 1500m by days end. Strong SW winds at treeline, Extreme SW winds at ridgetop. No significant precipitation expected.Wednesday: Freezing level hovering around 1500m. Clear skies initially, some cloud building in the afternoon. Moderate SW/W winds at treeline, Strong W winds at treeline. No significant precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

No recent observations. In the neighboring Lizard Range a size 2.5 avalanche that was likely triggered by cornice fall was observed Saturday, but the bulk of the observed activity was limited to minor sluffing and small loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Sustained warm temperatures are helping to rapidly settle the snowpack at and below treeline. Ongoing SW winds have likely left lingering wind slabs on north through east facing features. The mid-March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up with sustained warming and/or significant rain. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with daytime warming.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

New snow that fell over the weekend will be subject to very warm temps and direct solar Monday which will likely drive a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle. Large visor like cornices that overhang many ridge-tops will also be prone to failure.

Do not travel on or below cornices Monday.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of loose wet avalanches could be very serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wet Slabs

As the snowpack is subjected to significant warmth, the bond that fresh wind slabs and small storm slabs have with the underlying crust should rapidly decay. Potentially large wet slabs are possible Monday.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5