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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 21st, 2018–Dec 22nd, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Over 100cm of snow has fallen in the Ice Fields region since Dec 11th. We continue to see wide spread avalanche activity throughout the backcountry. This is the time to be on high alert when traveling in any avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

A cooling trend has taken into affect as the recent storm moved out. Temperatures will gradually warm up through the weekend with alpine highs around -10°c. The sky will be generally a mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation in the near future. Moderate west winds forecasted A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong south west winds continue to load lee slopes at tree line and above creating firm windslabs. The Dec. 11th persistent weak layer (facets, crust and isolated surface hoar) has been buried by up to 100cm snow producing sudden results in test profiles. The deep persistent weakness lingers near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control in the Columbia Ice Fields region produced numerous results to size 2.5 triggering both windslabs and persistent slabs at alpine and treeline elevations. A natural avalanche cycle was noted with several large releases to size 3.5. The peak of this natural avalanche cycle seemed to occur during the storm Thursday night.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This layer now sits under a meter of snow, any terrain that has not had previous activity on this layer should be given a wide berth.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5

Wind Slabs

Moderate SW winds and new snow continues to build fresh wind, particularly near ridge-tops.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Several recent large avalanches have been the result of the entire snowpack failing on or near the ground due to the weak snowpack structure surrounding this interface.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5