Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2019 5:28PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

shorton, Avalanche Canada

Lizard-Flathead.

Some avalanche danger remains in alpine areas, in wind loaded pockets and on steep, thin/rocky slopes.

Summary

Confidence

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light wind, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.WEDNESDAY: Dry with a mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C. THURSDAY: Light snowfall, roughly 4-8 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.FRIDAY: Another 5 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday or Monday.On Saturday, two large snowmobile triggered avalanches were reported on the Mountain Information Network. One was triggered on a thin, rocky, southwest facing feature near ridgecrest north of Fernie (see here for report). The photos tell a compelling story about the structurally weak snowpack that exists in many places in the region. The other was triggered on a wind affected south facing slope at treeline in the Corbin area (see here for report). We're very grateful for people sharing stories about their near misses on the MIN. A natural size 2 deep persistent slab was also observed on a south facing aspect around 2100 m on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent sunshine and warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on solar aspects while the snow appears to have remained dry on shady aspects. Wind slabs have become difficult to trigger.In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack may still be composed of weak faceted grains. In deeper snowpack areas, the middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally considered to be well-settled and strong.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The possibility of large releases remains in shallow snowpack areas. The chance of triggering is highest on steep rocky alpine slopes that have thin and/or variable snow cover.

Give rocky outcrops a wide berth in steep terrain.Avoid steep slopes in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Small pockets of wind slab could be triggered in steep, wind-affected terrain. Cornices may exist in places too.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Stay well back from cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2019 2:00PM