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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 9th, 2012–Jan 10th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure sets up over this region for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry, clear weather. Treeline temperatures will hover around -8 to -10C. Winds should be generally light from the north. On Thursday, clouds will start to build ahead of a relatively weak frontal system, winds will shift round to the west and temperatures will increase to around -2C. Flurries are possible, more likely it will stay dry.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred to size 2 on steep slopes on all aspects in response to the new snow and rain on Sunday and Monday. Reports indicate activity was isolated to the dense new snow. There were no reports of activity stepping down to any of the lower weak layers in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline, snowpack depths are around 260cm.The upper snowpack comprises a series of storm snow layers, which have generally bonded well to each other and are now gaining strength. Rain to approximately 2000 m has left us with a moist surface layer--expect this to freeze into a hard crust as temperatures start to fall. In the alpine, above the elevation where rain fell, significant new wind slabs have developed in response to very strong southwesterly winds. Concern for lower snowpack layers remains only in low snowpack areas. Facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack could be a concern in areas you know to be unusually shallow, or where you can see rocks poking up out of the snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for sensitive wind slabs lurking below ridgecrests, behind terrain features and in cross-loaded gullies.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Storm Slabs

Storm slab avalanches occurred in response to new snow and rain on Sunday/Monday. Above the rain line, storm slabs will continue to be reactive for another day or so.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Primarily a concern in the northern part of the region. Difficult to trigger, but possible from an area with a shallow, rocky snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6