Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Expect a mix of sun and cloud on Wednesday and Thursday morning. By late Thursday and Friday, a more organized front will bring about 12cm of new snow. Ridgetop winds should remain generally light from the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, becoming strong from the southwest with Friday's system. Daytime freezing levels should hover around 1200m

Over the past few days, explosives testing produced storm and wind slab avalanches to size 2. These avalanches occurred in response to recent wind and snow. Other than a new size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on Cowboy Ridge in the Fitzsimmons Range (witnessed on the weekend), we have not yet heard how persistent avalanche avalanche activity panned out in response to the recent storms. My best guess is that we may be transitioning into a lower probability-high consequence avalanche pattern with this persistent layer.

About 40cm of recent snowfall overlies a rain crust that was buried on March 28th. Reports suggest this crust exists up to at least 2200m. Strong southwest winds have shifted these new accumulations into dense wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain, while rain has saturated the snowpack below about 1800m. The most critical snowpack layer in the region is a facet/crust interface which lies anywhere from 50-150 cm below the surface. This persistent weak layer was responsible for several natural avalanches to size 3.5 over the past week, and continues to produce sudden snowpack test results. Although the likelihood of triggering has decreased somewhat, avalanches failing at this layer may not be survivable. At lower elevations, rain has saturated the snowpack. Layers below the critical mid-March interface are generally considered to be well-settled and strong.