Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

A ridge of high pressure should keep the South Coast mainly dry on Wednesday.  Mostly cloudy conditions are expected with sunny breaks possible.  Freezing levels are forecast to be around 1200m and alpine winds should remain light from the SW.  The warm front is expected to arrive Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.  There is some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts but the region should see 20-40mm of precipitation by Thursday evening.  Freezing levels are forecast to rise to around 2000m by the end of the Thursday and alpine winds will become strong from the SW.  Friday should see similar storm conditions with heavy precipitation, freezing levels over 2000m, and strong alpine winds.

On both Sunday and Monday, ski-cutting and explosives were producing thin soft slabs which were running on the firm crust layer. These were limited to size 1 and were isolated to wind affected terrain. Sluffing from steep terrain features was also reported. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with natural avalanches not expected and skier-triggered avalanches remaining possible in wind-loaded features.

Around 20cm of new snow overlies a hard rain crust that exists up to at least 2100m. In exposed terrain, the new accumulations have been shifted by strong SW winds into wind slabs which may be especially reactive due to the underlying crust. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer.