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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 5th, 2018–Mar 6th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Recent new snow combined with wind has promoted wind slab development as well as cornice growth. As the clouds part in the coming days remember that the sun packs a punch this time of year.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -13WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -12 THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -9  

Avalanche Summary

There was a report from the western portion of the region of a natural size 3.5 deep persistent avalanche approximately 200cm deep on a west aspect starting in the alpine at 2300m running down to 1400m. This was reported on Saturday and occurred in the previous 24-36 hours.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow is settling and has been redistributed into slabs in wind-exposed terrain. Below this is a layer buried mid-February that presents as a sun crust on solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on sheltered slopes. This layer looks most concerning on on solar aspects where it's associated with with small facets or surface hoar above.There are several deeper layers in the mid-pack that have shown signs of improving but remain on the radar as a low probability to trigger, yet would produce a high consequence avalanche if triggered. We are talking about surface hoar buried back in December and January. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust combined with loose sugary snow. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as sustained warming, sustained snowfall, large triggers (e.g. cornice fall, smaller avalanches coming down from above); human triggering is also possible in shallow snowpack areas with variable snow depth and convoluted terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent new snow combined with wind has promoted slab development on lee slopes in wind exposed areas.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Buried weak layers exist within the snowpack and may be reactive intense solar radiation or to large triggers such as a cornice fall. Human triggering may also be possible in shallow or thin, rocky, unsupported terrain.
Carefully assess and consider avoiding southerly facing slopesPay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger persistent slabs.Watch convoluted terrain with variable snowpack depth and multiple trigger points.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5