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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 6th, 2022–Apr 7th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Keep an eye on the snow surface, as it gets moist with warming and solar input the size and likelihood of avalanches will increase.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: No new snow expected. Light to moderate southwest winds and a low of -11 at 2000 m.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with no new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 2500 m.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow to the alpine and rain below. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels around 2700 m.

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds and freezing levels around 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days one size one explosive triggered wind slab avalanche has been reported as well as several size one dry loose avalanches in steep terrain.

We suspect Wet loose avalanches will occur on all aspects and elevations except high north as the sun comes out and the freezing level rises.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of recent storm snow has formed wind slab in exposed treeline and alpine terrain on north and east aspects. A crust exists on or near the surface on all aspects to around 2500 m and likely to mountain top on sun affected slopes. Moist snow will likely be observed at all aspects and elevations except high north. 

The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

expect wet loose avalanches in steep terrain. Size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase throughout the day.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

The likelihood of natural cornice falls could increase with solar input and warming. Avoid traveling on slopes with cornices looming above.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs exist in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. Size and sensitivity to triggering could be greater where wind slab has formed over a crust. Strong winds mean that wind slabs could be found further down slope than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2