Avalanche Forecast

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

An upper ridge over the province will give dry conditions for the next couple of days, although some low clouds will persist in interior valleys. It will gradually start shifting east by Friday morning, opening the door for a change in the weather pattern for the weekend.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods / Moderate west wind gusting at 50 km/h / Low temperature -10 C / Freezing level at valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with increasing cloud / Moderate northerly wind gusting at 50 km/h / High temperature -7 C / Freezing level at valley bottom.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light south wind gusting 40 km/h / High temperature -2 C / Possible temperature inversion / Freezing level at valley bottom.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light southwest wind gusting 50 km/h/ High temperature -2 C / Freezing level at valley bottom.

Numerous loose snow avalanches (up to size 2) and few wind slabs on cross-loaded features were triggered by strong solar radiation on Monday. Evidence of wind slab activity from the weekend has also been observed on steep alpine slopes. On Sunday, a snowmobiler accidentally triggered a large wind slab (size 2.5) on a lee alpine slope. The fracture line was up to 1 m deep. 

A deep persistent avalanche problem in the North Columbia forecast region has produced large and notable avalanches last weekend, and the southeast corner of the Cariboos appears to have a similar lingering problem. On Saturday, explosives triggered a 2.5 deep persistent avalanche on a northeast aspect at 2100 m. 

Recent strong wind has hit the region hard, stiffening 20-35 cm recent snow in open areas at treeline and throughout the alpine. Isolated surface hoar layers have been observed at the surface or in the upper snowpack (top 100 cm), as well as a thin breakable crust that extends 1600-1800 m (under 20 cm of rencent snow), but we have not seen avalanche activity on these layers. Lower elevations have seen spring-like conditions and a sun crust can now be found on steep solar aspects. See our field team photos from the Grizzly Den on Monday.

The lower snowpack is strong and settled in most parts of the region, except the southernmost part of the region around Blue River where there is a deeply buried crust/facet layer that could be exhibiting similar behavior to the deep persistent slab problem in the neighboring North Columbia region. This layer is most prevalent at below treeline elevations and has been reactive to heavy triggers like smaller wind slab avalanches that step down to this layer.

• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.