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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2021–Dec 15th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers on Wednesday.

 Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow; 5-15 cm / Strong, southerly winds / Low of -4 C / Freezing level 500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Snow; 15-25 cm / Strong, southerly winds / High of 0 C / Freezing level 700 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate, northwesterly winds / High of 0 C / Freezing level 700 m.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness with flurries; 3-5 cm / Light, westerly winds / High of -2 C / Freezing level 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

An impressive storm over the weekend brought 50-90 cm of snow to the mountains. A gradual rise in temperature during the storm formed a crust layer that can be found in areas up to 1400 m. An additional 20-50 cm of snow has accumulated since temperatures cooled. 

Strong southerly winds have had an ample supply of snow to drift into wind slabs at upper elevations. It remains possible to trigger these wind slabs in lee terrain features, such as down-wind of ridges and roll-overs.

Monitor for changing conditions as you move into wind-exposed terrain and pay attention to cracking or hollow sounds.

Below the early December crust layers, the snowpack is generally well-settled. With this storm event, a greater number of areas below treeline are exceeding threshold snow depths for avalanches. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast snow and wind are expected to form fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers on Wednesday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5