Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Monday night: Increasing cloud with isolated flurries beginning with a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds, increasing to strong in the alpine.Tuesday: Cloudy with periods of snow bringing 20-30 cm of new snow, decreasing overnight. Light southwest winds, increasing to strong or extreme in the alpine. Alpine high temperatures around -11.Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. New snow totals up to 40 cm. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.Thursday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southeast winds shifting to southwest in the evening. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

A social media post from the Marten area of Elk Valley on Thursday describes touchy persistent slab conditions, with lots of smaller slabs releasing over the mid-January surface hoar layer. Check out the post here. Of note is the fact that this area was previously untracked, leaving the mid-January layer undisturbed. This is something to bear in mind as dry conditions persist and the motivation to step out of well-traveled terrain increases. Areas where this layer is undisturbed are far more likely to hold reactive persistent slabs.

Forecast new snow will bury a variable surface of heavily wind affected old storm snow at alpine and wind-exposed treeline elevations, while adding to 25-35 cm of lower density storm snow from last week in sheltered areas above 1700 metres. In these sheltered areas, this older storm snow may cover a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals. Below 1700 metres, the new snow will accumulate above a thinner cover (5-10 cm) of the same storm snow that instead overlies a melt-freeze crust.The mid-January layer of surface hoar or a crust is buried around 35 to 45 cm deep. The surface hoar is found on shaded and sheltered slopes and is most prominent between 1600 m and 1900 m but has been found up to 2200 m. The melt-freeze crust is found on south aspects at all elevations. This layer was the subject of a recent Special Public Avalanche Warning.The middle of the snowpack is generally consolidated. The bottom half of the snowpack is unconsolidated and composed of weak and sugary faceted grains. The basal snowpack is becoming even weaker under prolonged cold temperatures, especially in thin snowpack areas.