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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 26th, 2015–Dec 27th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

New wind slabs are expected to build on Sunday at upper elevations. If areas receive more than 25cm, a more widespread storm slab problem could develop.Continually assess local conditions as you travel and use extra caution in wind affected terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A weak storm system will result in snowfall Saturday night and Sunday. 10-20cm of new snow is expected by Sunday evening. Alpine winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the SW and treeline temperatures should be around -15C. On Monday, unsettled conditions are expected as the storm exits the region. Light intermittent snowfall is possible in the morning and sunny breaks are possible in the afternoon. Alpine winds should ease to light after the storm passes and treeline temperatures should remain around -15C. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure builds and sunny conditions are expected.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since Monday.  New wind slabs are expected to form during the weekend storm and will probably be sensitive to human-triggering on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of low-density snow typically overlies a well-settled mid and lower snowpack. New wind slabs are expected to form this weekend as winds increase with the storm system. Between 80 and 130cm below the surface you'll likely find a weak layer which was buried in early December. Between 1100m and 1700m, this layer consists primarily of large surface hoar. At higher elevations, this layer consists of a sun crust, facets, and/or small surface hoar. Field reports indicate that human-triggering of this layer has become unlikely but heavy triggers such as a cornice falling or smaller avalanche may still have the potential to step-down. Below this layer, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New wind slabs are expected to form in leeward features at ridge crest as SW winds increase during the storm. If areas receive more than 25cm, a more widespread storm slab problem may form.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel. >Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose sluffing is expected from steep terrain features during the storm.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2