Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Clearing overnight with light westerly winds and freezing down to valley bottoms. Mostly clear with strong solar radiation on Sunday (chance of valley cloud) with cloud developing in the late afternoon. Light southwest winds and freezing levels climbing up to 1400 metres. Light snow starting overnight and continuing on Monday with moderate westerly winds and daytime freezing levels climbing from valley bottoms up to 1300 metres. Clear on Tuesday as the ridge re-develops, temperatures around -12 at treeline overnight.

Wind loading followed by solar radiation resulted in a size 3.0 natural storm slab avalanche on a south aspect in the alpine on Friday. Another natural cornice fall size 2.0 was reported on Thursday from a north aspect in the alpine, it was also reported that this cornice did not release a storm slab on the slope below. On Wednesday a natural cornice fall resulted in a size 2.0 avalanche.

The storm has ended and the sun is expected to bring strong solar radiation on Sunday. The storm resulted in about 40-60 cm over the past week. Below the storm snow you are likely to find a melt-freeze crust. This crust exists in most places except for higher elevation shaded terrain. In many areas there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 180cm below the surface and has become less of a concern. Possible triggers for this deep and destructive layer include a large cornice fall or significant warming from periods of strong solar radiation.