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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 29th, 2014–Nov 30th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

A Special Avalanche Warning has been issued for this weekend. Now is an important time to exercise restraint and stick to low angle terrain.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

An Arctic high pressure system dominates the forecast for the next few days.  Clear, cold, and dry conditions are expected until at least Thursday.Sunday: Sunny, treeline temperature around -30, light-moderate NW alpine wind Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, treeline temperature around -25, light W alpine wind Tuesday: Mostly sunny, treeline temperature around -20, moderate-strong NW alpine wind

Avalanche Summary

We haven't had any new reports since last weekend. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected]. Recent observations from the Rogers Pass area where the conditions are expected to be similar include widespread natural activity up to size 3.5 on Thursday and Friday. A natural size 3 was also reported on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

The storm produced a slab up to 1 m thick which sits on the mid-November weak layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). 20-30cm below this layer is a thick rain crust with weak facets on top. Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same.  Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A slab up to 1m thick sits on a touchy weak layer and is producing large avalanches. Strong alpine winds have loaded leeward features in exposed terrain creating touchy wind slabs.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 5