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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2012–Feb 14th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

The light northerly wind should continue on Tuesday morning as more high pressure moves across the interior. Clear skies and strong solar radiation is expected during the day on Tuesday, however northwest winds should help to keep alpine maximum temperatures close to -10.0 on shaded aspects. Some cloud and intermittent flurries are expected to develop in the afternoon or early evening that will bring a couple of cm overnight. Temperatures should drop down to about -12.0 in the alpine by Wednesday morning. The ridge of high pressure is expected to continue to bring clear skies and light winds during the day Wednesday. Alpine temperatures may rise above freezing on solar aspects, but should remain slightly below freezing on shaded aspects. The ridge is forecast to hold on Thursday as the next Pacific system approaches the coast. Precipitation amounts look low for Thursday evening at this time.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow layer above the February 09 surface hoar is now about 10-15 cm thick. There has been very little wind during the recent flurries. Some areas have reported that the surface hoar had grown to 50 mm before being buried. Some thin windslabs have developed due to down flowing air on large glaciated features. A melt-freeze crust has developed on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1400 metres. The mid-pack is generally well settled. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Cornices are large and may become weak and fall off naturally. Large loads like cornices may trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5