Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 9th, 2016 8:51AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jfloyer, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

This region lies on the margin of where heavy precipitation is expected with the incoming storm on Thursday. If the storm track turns north, snow amounts and corresponding avalanche danger will be higher.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: 5-10 cm new snow expected (possibly a little more in the south) with strong southwest winds up to 80 km/h expected at ridgetop. Freezing levels expected to rise to 1700 m near noon. Friday: Dry with some clear spells. Moderate southeasterly winds. Freezing level around 1600 m. Saturday: 5-10 cm new snow, with moderate southwesterly winds and freezing level around 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

A size 1.5 human-triggered avalanche was reported on Tuesday on a north aspect at 2500 m. On Sunday and Monday, size 2-2.5 natural avalanches ran in recent storm snow with crown depths averaging 40 cm on west through northeast aspects.

Snowpack Summary

At elevations above around 1600 m, approximately 50-80 cm recent storm snow now rests above a prominent weak layer buried on or around Feb-27. This weak layer comprises surface hoar sitting on a crust and is reported to be most prominent at sheltered treeline elevations. Thicker and touchier wind slabs are lurking throughout exposed terrain in the alpine and at treeline. A couple of sun crusts might exist in the upper 50-70cm on southerly aspects.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm and wind slabs conditions are expected to develop in response to new snow and wind, particularly on north through east aspects.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A crust/surface hoar layer buried approximately 60 cm below the surface is triggerable by people on sleds or on skis. This layer could also avalanche naturally during stormy weather and produce large avalanches.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Mar 10th, 2016 2:00PM