Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 6th, 2014 11:11AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

The heat is on! Avalanche hazard will likely increase throughout the day, be sure your plans allow for a safe retreat from the mountains. Check out the Forecasters Blog for more info on dealing with sultry temps.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: After agonizing over weather products all morning, I'm convinced that freezing levels will exceed 2200m by Monday afternoon, and likely stay there until Wednesday morning. This round of warming probably wont go to all the ridgetops, but were still looking at a balmy Monday night in the mountains. Monday: Freezing Level: 1500m rising to 2100m - 2300m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Strong, SW | Ridgetop: Extreme, SWMonday Night: Freezing Level: 2300mTuesday: Freezing Level: 2000m - 2300m; Precipitation: 2:8mm - 0:10cm; Wind: Treeline: Strong, SW | Ridgetop: Extreme, SWTuesday Night: Freezing Level: 2200m lowering to 1000mWednesday: Freezing Level: 1300m - 1600m; Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, W | Ridgetop: Strong, W

Avalanche Summary

A few small avalanches ran on north through northeast facing terrain Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures have resulted in good settlement and bonding of the storm snow from last week, but you may find the odd skier triggerable wind slab on northwest through east facing aspects at and above treeline.Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Columbias:The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm still has potential for human-triggering in isolated areas. The early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human triggering, but still has the capacity to produce large avalanches.The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The big warm up has the potential to wake up deeply buried weak layers in the snowpack that have been dormant recently. If these monsters begin to stir, the results will be catastrophic.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones in the afternoon.>Be aware of the potential for very large, deep and destructive avalanches due to the presence of a nasty combination of crust, facets and surface hoar.>Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

4 - 8

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches and cornice fall will likely be a problem on all aspects after noon. This kind of activity heralds increasing likelihood of very large natural avalanches.

Watch for clues like pinwheels, sluffing and moist/wet surface snow, that tell you the snowpack is heating up, and it's time to head home.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Apr 7th, 2014 2:00PM