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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2017–Feb 1st, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast Inland.

Watch for lingering wind slabs that may be reactive to rider triggers.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

The high pressure continues, resulting in a fairly benign pattern until Friday.Wednesday/ Thursday: Mostly sunny with alpine temperatures near -12. Ridgetop winds will be light from the northeast. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with  snow amounts 5-10 cm. Alpine high of -7 and ridgetop winds light from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

Recent MIN reports do a great job highlighting avalanche activity in the region. Wind slabs are currently the primary concern and have been very reactive to rider triggers. The reactivity may decrease through the forecast period, however; I'd use caution on the lee of exposed terrain at higher elevations. In thin rocky areas to the north, wind slabs could potentially step down to deeper weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

Last weekend the region received approximately 10 cm of new snow accompanied by strong southwest winds. This has left lingering wind slabs in the lee of exposed terrain. The new snow sits above a thin breakable sun crust and isolated pockets of surface hoar, potentially creating weak interfaces for wind slabs to propagate along. In southern areas (e.g. Coquihalla), the lower snowpack is well settled. In northern areas (e.g. Duffey Lake), the mid-January surface hoar and facet interface is now buried 50-80 cm. This interface produced large avalanches two weeks ago during the last major storm, and may still be poorly bonded in thin snowpack areas such as the South Chilcotins.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for pockets of wind slabs on exposed features near ridge crests and cross-loaded gullies. Also be cautious around thin rocky areas where wind slabs could 'step down' to deeper weak layers.
Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2