Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2017 4:54PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jsmith, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Natural and human triggered avalanches are very likely on Thursday. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: 20-30 cm new snow / Moderate, southwesterly winds/ Freezing level beginning to rise.Thursday: 30-40 cm new snow / Strong, southwesterly winds / Freezing level rising to 1000-1500 m.(Cooler in the north)Friday: Cloudy with flurries / Strong, southwesterly winds / Freezing level dropping to 500-1000 m.Saturday: Mostly cloudy / Moderate, westerly winds/ Freezing level around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Heavy snow, strong winds, and warming is elevating the avalanche danger to HIGH on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

35-50 cm(lower amounts in the north) of recent storm snow has buried a wide variety of old snow surfaces including stiff wind slab or wind effected snow at upper elevations, sun crust on steep southerly slopes, surface hoar and surface facets in sheltered locations. The mid-January surface hoar and facet interface is now buried 50-80 cm and the mid-December facets down 90-120 cm remain a concern especially in shallower snowpack areas like the Duffey, Hurley and/ or South Chilcotins. These deeper weaknesses warrant monitoring especially through periods of more load. In southern areas (Coquihalla), the lower snowpack is reportedly well settled(stronger), than it is to the north.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Thursday's storm is starting cold and ending warm. This creates a dangerous condition where warmer heavy snow is sitting on-top colder snow, making storm slab avalanches much more likely.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This problem is more prevalent in the far north areas of the region and is a low likelihood, high consequence scenario that will need to be monitored as snow loads increase.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2017 2:00PM