Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2012 9:38AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Dry and Cornices.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Track of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The region will largely remain under the influence of an outbreak of modified Arctic Air, at least through Wednesday evening. At 1500 m you can expect a H of -15 and a L of -30 on Tuesday. Winds will be light to moderate out of the SW up high and out of the N, NE at treeline elevations. The weather models can't seem to agree on a solution for later in the week. The GFS shows a storm system affecting the southern half of the province while the other models call for continued dry conditions. Check back tomorrow for more details.

Avalanche Summary

Sluffing continues to be an issue in step terrain. In some locations the outflow winds have begun to redistribute the weekend storm snow into wind slabs.

Snowpack Summary

The region has received as much as 30 cm in the last 72 hours, 50 cm in the last 7 days. Much of this snow has been accompanied by strong variable winds which has created a wind-slab problem in the alpine and treeline elevation bands. Cool dry Arctic air is creeping into the valleys in the far north portion of the region. This air mass will continue to work its way south which will tighten the snowpack up a bit, drop temperatures & introduce reverse winds at and below treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds will be out of the East Tuesday creating wind slabs in unusual places. Pay attention to how the snow feels under your skis or machine. If you feel the snow stiffening underneath you, you've already gone too far.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Dry

Recent light density snow accompanied by cool temperatures has made for some active sluffing in wind sheltered locations. Be sure your sluff doesn't push you off your intended line & into an area of higher consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Cornices

Last week's warm temperatures and strong winds caused rapid cornice growth which may not be well supported. Try to reduce your exposure beneath these large unstable masses of heavy snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Jan 18th, 2012 8:00AM